The New Commute: Embry-Riddle Researches a New Transportation System

It's 5:30 p.m. and I'm on the highway, parked in a line of cars that are backed up for miles. Suddenly, I'm George Jetson, zooming along in my personal jet at 200 to 400 miles per hour above the same highway. A few minutes later, I'm landing on the vertiport behind my house.

Cut to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, where they turn daydreams like mine into reality. Their vision, articulated by NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin last year in a speech to the American Bar Association, goes something like this:

In 2020, a family of four from Chicago will take a commercial flight to San Francisco. When they get off the plane, they'll follow the signs to Avis and Hertz, where they'll pick up the keys to their rental plane. The cost of the four-seat personal jet is about the same as a high-end luxury automobile. Both husband and wife can fly because for several years their employers have made personal aircraft available for business travel. Their oldest child, age 15, will learn to fly next year at school.

Their rental plane is equipped with intelligent avionics that offer real-time onboard assessment of aircraft health, atmospheric conditions, and air traffic. The heads-up displays enable them to fly a "highway in the sky" as easily as playing a video game. They fly to a remote area in the Pacific Northwest, where the grandparents have retired, and land at a small airport that some years ago was given all-weather capabilities.

After dropping their kids off, they fly their rented plane back to San Francisco, where they split up for respective business meetings. He boards a commercial supersonic airliner for a two-hour flight to Singapore that costs no more than today's subsonic ticket prices. She stays in the rental plane, because she wants to visit three separate clients in California, each about 200 miles apart. She completes these three business trips in one extended day. She picks up the kids and heads back the next morning to Chicago, where her husband will rejoin them.

An ambitious plan

Science fiction, right? Not according to Bruce Holmes, NASA's manager of general aviation. He's the agency's point man in an ambitious proposed plan, which could be worth almost $70 million over the next five years, to create a small aircraft transportation system (SATS) modeled on the U.S. interstate highway system that would make planes as serious an alternative to cars as cars became to horse-drawn carriages. He predicts SATS will make "doorstep-to-destination travel at four times the speed of highways" readily available in the nation's suburban and rural communities by 2022.

The SATS vision had its origins in 1994 with the Advanced General Aviation Transport Experiment (AGATE) program, a collaborative effort by NASA, corporations, agencies, and universities to revitalize the then-depressed general aviation industry by developing simplified, less expensive light airplanes that are easier to operate and learn to fly. AGATE established the technological basis for the new aircraft, as well as the framework for developing shorter, less costly pilot training programs. The pilot training curriculum team was led by Steven Hampton, professor of flight technology at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University.

The planes recommended by AGATE will be comfortable, quiet, and safe and will have all-glass cockpits featuring graphical digital displays as intuitive, simple, and responsive as a Nintendo game and GPS and internet links that ensure accurate information on location, weather, air traffic, ground services, and more. They're now in development and will be coming soon to a dealer near you. On March 6, startup Eclipse Aviation Corp. announced that in 2003 it will begin delivering a twin-engine jet seating six people, including the pilot. The Eclipse 500 will cruise at 423 mph at altitudes of up to 41,000 feet and will fly 2,070 miles on one tank of fuel. The company estimates it will cost $775,000 in current dollars, with operating costs comparable to smaller general aviation aircraft.

Support system is critical

But the widespread use of personal aircraft, no matter how high-tech or user-friendly, depends more on the infrastructure to support them than the know-how to build them. If small plane travel is to catch on, they must be given access in most weather conditions to the thousands of small airports without control towers that airlines never reach.

SATS was created to develop a new air transportation model that would link the electronic capabilities of the new aircraft with the underused capacity of the many U.S. airports currently lacking the signaling equipment that allows planes to land by instrument in poor visibility.

When visibility is poor, pilots are forced to rely on six different instruments that give data about speed, direction, how fast they're descending or ascending, and altitude. The altimeter, which calculates altitude, actually measures the distance above sea level, not the ground. Figuring the difference between the two is one reason pilots spend so much time with charts and flight plans. Most private pilots don't fly by instrumentation in poor weather because of the rigorous training and regular updates that are needed.

But with a glass screen showing a "highway in the sky" and giving approach guidance based on real-time conditions, a pea soup sky becomes clear as day. Following the flight path laid out in front of the pilot is like playing a video game.

Four-fifths of U.S. airline passengers pass through 22 hub airports as they travel to and from the 600 airports with scheduled service. Meanwhile, another 14,000 small airports throughout the United States are rarely used. In the SATS scenario, a "GPS wide-area augmentation system" being developed by the FAA for 5,400 small public-use airports will allow pilots to make precision approaches in poor visibility. More airports would be available to more planes more often.

Biggest hurdle: public perceptions

Progress toward a small aircraft transport system will be measured primarily by the percentage of these landing facilities that are equipped to support landings and takeoffs by SATS aircraft in most weather conditions.

One of the assumptions -- and attractions -- of SATS is that it would allow free flight, the ability to chart and fly one's own route with little or no airborne assistance from air traffic controllers. With free flight, the new aircraft would travel from point A to point B, eliminating the indirect routing and delays that are built into the major airlines' hub-and-spoke system.

NASA's biggest hurdle in making its dream come true is not technological. It is psychological. Most people perceive small plane ownership and travel as a luxury, not a need.

Planners of SATS are placing their bets on the assumption that time is becoming such a precious commodity people will do whatever it takes to get places faster. They say people want a faster, more flexible alternative to today's highway gridlock and to the hublock that is possible in the future if demand for commercial air travel doubles in the next 20 years, as NASA predicts it will.

SATS research at Embry-Riddle

NASA has funded precursor studies on several important SATS-related issues by Embry-Riddle researchers. Their reports and opinions range from optimistic to cautious.

Ken Stackpoole, coordinator of SATS research at Embry-Riddle, is assembling a partnership of airport managers, business leaders, and elected officials in Florida to bring the concept to life in the state. The Southeast SATSLab Consortium will purchase equipment, commission market and user needs studies, and organize test runs in preparation for full-scale demonstrations in 2005 that a small aircraft transportation system is economically viable in Florida. NASA is planning demonstrations of SATS technology in Virginia.

A forum Stackpoole organized Feb. 9 at Embry-Riddle's Daytona Beach, Fla., campus featured presentations by NASA's Holmes and three of his SATS project managers and drew more than 30 attendees from Florida, including congressional staffers, economic development officials, airline and FBO operators, insurers, academics, and researchers.

"We're trying to create a grassroots movement to prove SATS can work," Stackpoole says. "It involves getting local authorities to make investments, local airports to make needed improvements, and local schools to teach kids to fly." A key selling point is that SATS would make it easy for people and businesses that migrate to suburban and rural areas to travel quickly and conveniently from those areas.

Ken Fleming, Embry-Riddle's director of air traffic management research, studied the impact that increased air traffic by SATS aircraft would have on airports and the surrounding airspace. Using electronic records of all flights that were filed and airborne Sept. 8, 1999, around Orlando Executive Airport, he simulated the effect that additional flights by 50, 100, 150, and 200 SATS aircraft would have on traveling time, delays, air and ground congestion, and potential airborne conflicts. His study included all aircraft within 150 nautical miles of the airport -- some 4,300 flights.

Fleming found there would be no significant delays, and air traffic controllers would have no problem keeping the additional SATS planes from flying too close to other aircraft.

SATS travel ideal for middle distances

In the case of a single traveler attending a meeting, he concluded it is most cost effective to drive if the meeting is no more than 190 miles away, to fly a SATS aircraft if it is 190-500 miles away, and to book an airline trip 30 days in advance if it is more than 500 miles away. Not surprisingly, for trips under 50 miles, no time is saved by traveling by air instead of car.

"The middle distances, between 200 and 600 miles, are most conducive to new air travel solutions," agrees Christopher Herbster, an assistant professor of applied aviation sciences at Embry-Riddle. His research for SATS included a review of a study that compared the costs of air, highway, and high-speed rail travel in the corridor between Los Angeles and San Francisco. When societal costs, such as accidents, congestion, pollution, and noise, as well as individual costs were factored in, air transportation's full cost of 13 cents per passenger-kilometer made it the hands-down winner over highway's cost of 23 cents and rail's cost of 23.5 cents. "Commercial air travel is cheaper if it's available," Herbster says.

For AGATE, Steven Hampton evaluated different cockpit displays and identified the training issues, problems, and needs that would be associated with them. His continuing research aims to demonstrate that people can learn to fly SATS airplanes almost as easily as they learn to drive cars. For the SATS initiative, he's investigating the simplicity and ease of using the proposed system and the system's reliability and flexibility in responding to many different demands.

Hampton emphasizes that free flight is required for SATS to succeed. The national airspace system must allow free flight to be used as a standard operating procedure, he says, and SATS aircraft must have free flight capability in nearly all weather conditions and must be able to operate like regional airlines.

Local airports could increase access

Seth Young, an assistant professor of business administration at Embry-Riddle, studied the accessibility of small regional airports in underserved communities in Florida. One of SATS' goals is to have a functioning airport no more than 30 minutes' travel time away from one's origin or destination. The major airlines' hub-and-spoke airport system has created oversaturation of activity at major hub airports near big cities and sharp decreases in airline service at smaller, local airports, some of which have been forced to close. As a result, many people living outside major cities have only limited access to the aviation system. Equipping little-used airports would serve these unreached communities and ease congestion and delays at hubs.

Young's study examined data for the 109 airports in Florida that are certified for aviation operations. He found that the 20 airports that provide all of Florida's commercial air service are located less than a half-hour drive away for 70 percent of the state's population. For Floridians living farther away, smaller airports could be put to use for SATS.

Young doesn't believe SATS will lead any time soon to a Jetsons-like world, where personal hangars and airstrips are as common as garages and driveways. "An air taxi service is more feasible," he says. "I think this will be an intercity mode of transport. Manufacturers will produce the aircraft, the local car rental office will have a half dozen planes in addition to its fleet of cars, and taxi or bus companies will run short air trips. In the early days of aviation, commercial flying was primarily unscheduled -- you hired a ride aboard a plane. With SATS I think we'll see this pattern repeated. It will be a gradual expansion of the general aviation system."

Robert McGrath, an assistant professor of business administration at Embry-Riddle, estimated the 10-year life cycle costs and affordability of five different types of proposed SATS aircraft.

Because specifications for the SATS aircraft have yet to be determined, McGrath says predicting affordability is difficult. For example, McGrath extrapolated that a second-generation (in 2025) "low-end" SATS aircraft might be priced as low as $150,000, in today's dollars. NASA's goal, after investments in manufacturing are made, is for the cost of a SATS aircraft to come down to that of a luxury automobile.

"That seems remarkably low for such a technological advancement," McGrath says, "but with next-generation, computer-based design and manufacturing, it is not out of the question."

Business users likely to lead the way

It isn't clear yet how this new way of getting around will be introduced to a large number of Americans.

"Ordinarily, to accomplish paradigm shifts on this scale, industrial, military, and other governmental markets are targeted as long-term test beds. Mass market versions typically follow," McGrath says. "I think SATS initially will create a mid-level transportation mode between general aviation and the regional airlines, perhaps as a well-organized airborne taxi or charter bus service structured around franchises. Once it becomes institutionalized and major investments have been sunk, commuters will appreciate its legitimacy and effectiveness."

McGrath says developing new technologies and products is typically so costly that companies initially might have to price SATS aircraft below their true unit costs to generate the volumes that are needed to lower costs to what is really needed. "Where the average consumer is concerned, early business strategies must develop marketing and financing innovations and not target profitability too optimistically," he says.

McGrath agrees with NASA that it will take at least 20 years for SATS to become an integrated, mature system. "SATS is an infrastructure -- planes, satellites, dispersed air traffic control, fully standardized airports, and incredible amounts of info-tech coordination and control," he says.

Demonstrating that a small aircraft transportation system can work in places like Florida and Virginia is the next step, and the task of doing so is shifting increasingly to non-NASA people like Embry-Riddle's Stackpoole and the consortium he's assembling.

Will SATS become The Next Big Thing in transportation, or simply a gradual expansion of general aviation? Only time will tell.

Until then, I have my Jetsons reruns.

By Robert Ross

SATS Comes to Florida

Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University is inviting political, business, and aviation leaders in Florida to join a Southeast SATSLab Consortium, which will use NASA's investments to conduct experiments and demonstrations of a small aircraft transportation system (SATS) in the state. The demonstrations and the response of consumers and communities will form the basis for public policy decisions and models for national implementation of SATS.
The objective is to demonstrate that:
The public can safely pilot SATS aircraft in most weather conditions, including abnormal operations.
Travel by SATS aircraft can be competitive with the costs of travel by airline or automobile.
Creation of a SATS infrastructure is an affordable national transportation system investment.
SATS can provide accessibility, mobility, economic opportunity, and environmental benefits to suburban and rural communities.
Timetable:

2000 Create Southeast SATSLab Consortium.

2001 Create an organization to conduct experiments and demonstrations.

2001 Conduct studies for implementing SATS experiments and demonstrations in Florida.
Determine infrastructure needs, placement, and acquisition costs.
Establish GPS experiments by the Florida Department of Transportation.
Develop investment scenarios and economic impact analysis.
Conduct five-year SATS education and marketing campaign.

2002 Acquire needed aircraft and airport, navigation, and communications infrastructure.

2003 Conduct experiments at three or four airports; compile responses from consumers, providers, and communities.

2004 Acquire additional infrastructure and aircraft.

2005 Conduct demonstrations at 10-15 airports; compile responses from consumers, providers, and communities.
After 2005, market forces take over and fuel future efforts.